Research

How we read prediction markets.

Product research with public citations. We do not invent sample sizes or win rates.

July 2026

Informed flow in prediction markets: what whales actually tell you

Prediction markets aggregate dispersed information - but large trades are not automatically “smart money.” A framework for reading whale flow with the literature, not folklore.

July 2026

Cross-venue price discovery: Polymarket, Kalshi, and the law of one price

When the same event trades in two places, prices can diverge. Why that happens, what the literature implies, and how Algomarket’s arb layer should be read.

June 2026

Attention, liquidity, and screener discipline in crowded books

Open prediction markets produce more contracts than any desk can watch. How attention and liquidity research inform Algomarket’s screener - and what Free vs Pro is for.

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